Coach

Score the post before it ships

Estimates Phoenix action probabilities from the text, then applies the published production weights. Micro, short, long, article, and thread are not the same candidate. The Chrome extension does the same thing on x.com.

DraftMicro · 52

Reach index

75A

Scene · Micro

One breath. Reply/quote or it dies.

raw 1.740
Σ wᵢ · P̂ᵢ

Scene post. Fat-tail OC. Lands if the room already has the context. Not a template. Scoring on reply (5 × p≈21.2%).

Reply5 × 21.2%
+1.060
Quote5 × 13.9%
+0.695
Not interested-43.2 × 0.5%
-0.216
Mute-58.8 × 0.1%
-0.082
Copy-link share20 × 0.4%
+0.080
Follow you4 × 1.9%
+0.076
Like0.5 × 8.5%
+0.043
Dwell time0.004 × 10.0s
+0.040

Do this before you post

  • now

    Do not explain it in the same post

    The replies exist because the thought is unfinished. Spell it out and you get a blog sentence. Answer in the replies — each one is weight 5.

    ReplyWeight / QuoteWeight — scene prior

  • next

    This only hits a room you already trained

    Fat-tail OC. Phoenix scores per viewer. Mutuals who have been eating your last 20 posts will reply. A cold OON viewer (×0.75) sees a fragment. Don't industrialize this. If you sell to operators, steal the one-breath shape — not the in-joke.

    OonWeightFactor 0.75 + per-viewer Phoenix

  • now

    Cut it until it feels unfinished

    The NK-shape is one breath. A paragraph of context is Operator voice wearing a Scene costume.

    Scene prior vs dwell-on-thread

  • next

    Stay for the conversation, don't escalate

    Loaded topics lift reply and quote priors. They also lift NotInterested and Mute a little. The published report head is −234 — do not turn this into an insult thread.

    ReplyWeight vs NotInterested / Mute / Report

Phoenix predicts P(action) per viewer from their engagement history. Outrank estimates those probabilities from the draft, then multiplies by the published production weights. It is a coaching instrument, not the live ranker.

Terms · Privacy · Estimates, not Phoenix. Not affiliated with X or xAI.